10:19 Dwight Howard blocks Paul Pierce’s layup

9:33 Ray Allen misses driving layup

6:11 Dwight Howard blocks Rajon Rondo’s layup

5:39Rajon Rondo misses driving layup

(The moment Howard left the game, Boston got two layups from Tony Allen and Rondo. Don’t tell me that was a coincidence.)

Orlando won the paint battle for the first time in the series, getting 40 points to Boston’s 28. Hard to attribute that to the foul trouble, since Garnett is more of a finesse jump shooter with his offensive game, Sheed lives at the three point line, and Perkins only goes to the line every now and then. Howard owned the paint. The Celtics eventually ran out of jumpers to answer back with.

On the offensive end, Orlando finally shot over their heads from three point land. I doubt we’ll see a 52% performance from downtown the next two games. But the Magic’s pick and roll game finally triumphed over Boston’s defense, as four Magic players hit multiple threes.

Jameer ran the show (and surprisingly Boston , as he was able to penetrate past Rondo’s renegade defense, forcing either the bigs to sag in (which they rarely did) or drew Allen and Pierce inside which left Barnes, Pietrus and Redick open. Several times the Celtics would leave these guys open, an issue they struggled with at the beginning of the season.

For all the fuss about Perk, he hadn’t played real well up to the point of his ejection; Rasheed Wallace actually was an upgrade for what he brought offensively as well as defensively, stretching the floor and forcing the Magic to guard all sides as Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett struggled to get good looks, Allen especially. Redick continues to play excellent defense on Jesus Shuttleworth, as his Duke tutelage of fighting through screens seems to be paying dividends.

I’d be interested to see if the Celtics go back to the defensive strategy that won them the first three games–playing excellent man-to-man defense and not biting as much on the dribble penetration and continuing to switch the screen and rolls. The rotations have been slower the past few games, and the Magic have set up their offense much much faster.

Although Boston has shown they can win anywhere and everywhere, it’s feeling more like Game 6 will decide who moves onto the NBA Finals. The Celtics have looked lethargic and slow for two games straight, and it’s hard to see them having anything left for another road trip to Orlando.

Perkins should be back for Game 6 as will Rasheed Wallace, so there’s unlikely to be any officiating favor for Orlando. However, if Howard can make his impact felt defensively and keep Boston on the perimeter, it’ll give the Magic a fighting chance to tie the series up.

However, as a lot of NBA folk like to say, a series doesn’t start until one team wins on the other team’s court. That is precisely what Phoenix has to do to get to the NBA Finals, and their past history in Los Angeles doesn’t smile on them at all. Neil Paine of Basketball Reference points out the sobering stats.

Yep, the Suns have been pretty good vs. L.A. this season… as long as they are playing them in Phoenix, that is. At home, they’re efficient on offense (even better than their seasonal average of 115.3 pts/100 possessions), they force turnovers, and they win the free throw battle by a huge margin (witness the Suns’ 37-16 edge in FTM two nights ago). But the second the Suns set foot in Staples Center, the Lakers own them, winning by an average of 18 PPG (and no fewer than 12 in any single game), hanging ridiculous offensive numbers on them, and stifling Phoenix’s own offensive machine.

Several other factors point to the degree of difficulty of the Suns taking one game in Los Angeles.

74 to 33. That’s the free throw disparity Phoenix enjoyed in Games 3 and 4. Now, the officiating wasn’t that bad in Game 3 as LA settled for threes while the Suns attacked the basket, but the Lakers didn’t get some the contact calls they probably earned on Tuesday (even the normally ref-neutral Forum Blue & Gold had to make a passing comment about the frustrating officiating). Safe to say the Suns won’t enjoy that type of free throw advantage in Los Angeles, and that they’ll have to muscle their way a little more to a win on the road. This probably means relying on Amare for a big game. Ruh roh.

Relying on the bench. Now, the Suns bench has had some good performances on the road this playoffs (Goran Dragic’s explosion in San Antonio the most notable), but as a whole the bench usually plays its best at US Airways Center. To expect a repeat performance Thursday night would require.

Moreover, the generally maligned Laker bench (mostly Jordan Farmar, Shannon Brown and Lamar Odom at this point) has already outplayed the Suns twice at home in this series, and you figure as the series wears on, the experience of those players will kick in. You’d have to figure the starters would carry the load, especially Steve Nash, who has never played well at Staples, especially against the physical Derek Fisher.

Of course, we said the same thing about the Spurs in Game 3, and we all remembered what happened there.

Past history. The Lakers have done this before, letting series slip to 2-2 before taking control. Silver Screen & Roll points out how history is repeating itself. Against Houston and Denver last year, against Oklahoma City barely a month ago, LA fell into a 2-2 tie with a dubious Game 4 performance, only to come out and dominate their Game 5s and eventually win the series (actually, the Lakers have not lost a Game 5 since 2007, when they fell to Phoenix in the first round).

Conventional wisdom says the Suns lose Thursday night as the Laker experience and home court advantage takes root. But then again, there is nothing conventional about these Phoenix Suns.

The Bulls are going to get swept, and then Vinnie will get canned. Sorry chowder, but they’re at a disadvantage at every position except maybe center, and even that’s a stretch.

The Magic depend way too much on the three offensively to win a series in five or less—they’ll lose a game or two in every series they should win (that happened against Philly and Boston last year). They nearly blew their first round series last year when the well drew up and Hedo bailed them out. Plus the Bobcats play some of the fiercest perimeter defense in the league with Captain Jack, Wallace and Diaw all scrambling around. Howard will probably wear them down, but Larry Brown always gets the most out of his guys before he packs town and leaves. Magic in six, possibly seven if they can’t light it up from beyond the arc.

The Celtics-Heat series sucks. Boston’s looked terrible for a month. KG looks like David Robinson near the end (effective at times, out of it at others), Pierce looks totally worn out (it’s so depressing to watch him play now), and Allen is starting to wear down. Rondo’s playing great ball, but it’s amazing how abrasive the vets treat him. I kind of hope that Wade carries Miami through just because a Lebron-Wade series would be fun for two or three spectacular individual duels. Celtics in seven though, and then they get swept by Cleveland. This is the Series of the Living Dead—the Celtics look ready for retirement and Wade probably wants out of Miami.

The Hawks-Bucks series would’ve been epic for true hoops fans with Bogut in there—I was so bummed when I heard about that injury. I really wanted to see the evolutionary Luc Longley dominate the boards. Instead Atlanta will win in four or five, setting up a real exciting Orlando-Atlanta seven game series which I can’t wait to watch.

Lakers in 7 without Bynum. Lakers in 5 with Bynum. Thunder have blown a half-dozen double digit leads against all teams of all sorts the past month to blow homecourt in the first round, and I could see the same thing happening here. Fisher will get eaten alive and Kobe probably won’t play that well, but Gasol and Odom should wreack havoc inside. Of course, if the guards decide to hound the ball rather than plastering it inside, the Thunder could sneak up on them, but if LA messes around with these guys. Definitely worth watching for the Durant-Artest battle.

Dallas in 6. I like the Spurs, and if they can pull the upset I can see them in the Finals, but the Mavs are the worst possible matchup for them. They can throw Damp and Haywood at Duncan for forty minutes, and Timmy’s not exactly in dominant form anymore. George Hill is coming in sore. Tony Parker is coming in rusty. The Mavs can throw Barea and Beaubois off the bench to outquick Parker, and Terry is a capable match against Manu. Unless Ginobili has the series of his life, it’s hard to see them beating Dallas’s depth.

I could definitely see the winner of this series in the Finals. Lots of hungry vets on both sides—something I DON’T see on the top half of the West bracket.

Suns in 6. Holy great Jesus. I hadn’t paid much attention to the Suns other than box scores, but I watched them the last two nights and they CRUSHED Denver and Utah on back-to-back nights to earn that three seed. And it wasn’t like the Nugs and Jazz were screwing around and playing cards on the sideline. Phoenix has three great three point shooters in J-Rich, Dudley and Frye, Dragic has finally emerged as their quality backup point (he’s even making some Nash-like moves), Amundson’s doing his deal, Grant Hill is playing great, Amare has been monstrous, and Steve’s still being all cereberal. Favorite team of the postseason (although it’s funny they replaced an injured Robin Lopez with Jarron Collins as their 5), even if they’re probably doomed to lose in the second round.

That being said, Portland won’t go quietly. Camby will make Amare work hard for his points. Nash won’t be able to handle Miller defensively (but the same could be said the other way around). Aldridge could cause Stoudemire some problems, but Amare’s issue has always been post defense. Roy’s meniscus injury is going to really hurt their upset potential. But Portland has the best home court in the league, so they’ll probably squeeze two before succumbing to the Suns.

No way Utah wins a Game 7 in Denver. I really liked the Jazz earlier this season, but they’ve sunk off since then, and I don’t see them having the horses to stay with the Nugs. Afflalo and Lawson will make Deron work hard for his points (if they could knock around Chris Paul last year, the story should be the same here), Melo traditionally has been an awful matchup for them, and JR Smith will throw a few casual 30 point games in there. The Nuggets beat the Jazz three times this year (once without Melo and Billups); and their lone loss came without Melo and Billups. Denver’s biggest weakness has been size, but Okur is a perimeter big and Boozer is an undersized big. Their exit won’t come for another round. Nuggets in 5.

For those who don’t know, I’ve been writing a lot for the California Golden Blogs (a Cal sports community that’s part of SBNation, a grassroots sports network of team/sports blogs), which is probably why you haven’t heard or seen much of me lately. Stupid I know, but I generally work at my best when unencumbered by social or physical burden. I haven’t been this productive in years, and it’s definitely allowed me to reassess the way I approach writing.

For those who care about this stuff, the best way is to follow me at SBNation by clicking on the here (or on the SBNation link on the sidebar) and subscribing to the feed.

Anyway, these are just samples of the best work:

Should the Pac-10 eliminate round-robin scheduling?

“The BCS, for better or for worse, is here to stay for most of the next decade. We don’t really have much of a say in it, so we have to deal with the system as is. So we have to figure out what situations would benefit the Bears assuming USC maintains its conference dominance. One thing to look at it is the vaunted Pac-10 round robin. I got thinking about this after reading a quote from Wizard of Odds:

Wouldn’t it be nice if BCS teams took off the skirt and started playing BCS teams in nonconference? Wouldn’t it be nice if you, the fan, actually got value for all that money you pump toward a university just to get a decent seat? Wouldn’t it be nice if the spirit of competition returned to college football?

This is a nice viewpoint, but it’s a little naive. The Pac-10 already does this, playing the extra game, having every other team in the conference play each other once. How much respect do they get for this system? (Hint: it’s equal to the number of BCS at-large bids they’ve been rewarded with the past six seasons.)

Other stuff, if you want to take a look at it.

Here’s the dirty secret: This extra conference game drives up the probability of an extra loss. And you could argue has crippled BCS dreams several times for our conference’s best.”

This post was pretty crazy. 484 comments, with pretty good discussion arguing for and against. Can’t say it didn’t get a little bit heated, but it was all in good fun! We even started a discussion about Scorsese movies on the side.

Here are some of my other favorite posts.

What Concerns You About Cal Football (2009 ed):  ”Concern. That’s the state of mind a Cal football fan can find his or herself in during the interminable offseason…However, while those positive thoughts run through our minds from time to time, worry and apprehension can supplant them fairly easily. As in, “how will the Bears break our hearts this time…There are several troublespots going into next season, and I’m sure we can identify others if we try hard enough. Behold the power of pessimism!”

Introducing +/- to Cal Hoops (still a work in progress!): You probably know how the plus/minus has become a huge staple of NBA stats (you’ll see it on NBA box score sheets); I tried applying them to Cal Hoops. Still a work in progress.

Should the Pac-10 Get Better Television Deals?: Anyone who’s followed or tried to follow the Pac-10 football circuit outside the West Coast has pretty much found themselves in dire straits…

Finally, I started a Hall of Fame for this Cal community site to reward the greatest Cal athletes for their efforts as Golden Bears and as pros.  It’s a March Madness style tournament where . You can see what the full bracket looks like here, and track what’s going on by following the Hall of Fame section.

It’s really cool stuff; Cal sports fans should check it out if you guys have some time, some really quality stuff has come out of this.

Phil Jackson is about to win his tenth NBA title, probably tonight or Tuesday.  It can be debated whether Phil is the greatest coach of all-time, but there’s no doubt that he’s done what he needed to get the Bulls and the Lakers to the top of the mountain.

As usual, back to Robert Greene and The 33 Strategies of War, which I learn something new from everytime I pick it up. Kind of like watching Zen Master Coach, and how he applies some of these strategies to his coaching.

Declare War On Your Enemies:  In most sports, this usually refers to the other opponents, but in basketball, the war is from within. Phil knew the biggest enemies to the Lakers’s progress would be their mindset, roughed up after getting wiped out in last year’s Finals. Were they tough enough? Could they handle the spotlight? Could they fight the concept they were soft?

Phil Jackson is pushing Pau Gasol. Has been pushing him. Since the beginning of training camp. Since the last seconds ticked off the clock in the Lakers’ ugly loss to Boston in Game 6 of the Finals last June.

“He’s yelled at Pau more this season than at anyone I can remember in a long time,” Lakers assistant coach Kurt Rambis says. “He’s been working him, needling him, constantly challenging him to be better than he was then, to be a tougher rebounder, a tougher defender.”

Playing with greater resolve — absorbing blows more carelessly and lowering a shoulder more forcefully — isn’t a switch you throw, it’s an attitude you arrive at, a process you survive.

 Many of us remember the famous anecdote from the 1991 NBA Finals, when Jordan was looking for his shot in traffic instead of passing out to the open John Paxson, and in a timeout Phil asked MJ who was open. After asking him several times, Michael finally said, “Pax.” Phil replied, “Then get him the fucking ball.” From that point on in Game 5, MJ drew the double team, found Paxson, who nailed five jumpers in the final four minutes to give the Bulls their first title. Jackson picks his spots, finds the weak points in his team’s psyche (Michael’s and Kobe’s willingness to take over the game, Shaq’s passive-aggressive behavior, Scottie’s whining, Gasol’s lack of toughness), and challenge it when the team needs it. In terms of managing the emotions of his stars, no one has done it better as a coach than Phil. 

Do Not Fight the Last Battle: Many coaches are stuck in the same path, using the same strategies or same sets that they’ve used for their entire life (Jerry Sloan with pick and roll, Rick Adelman with hands-off hoops, George Karl with god knows what). Ultimately doing the same thing over and over leads to predictabilities that can be exploited. 

Phil doesn’t coach that way. For the most part he works above the set offenses and defenses, letting the players find their own way on the court–not exactly hands off, but to make them fight their way through tough stretches, to work together for the benefit of the team.

Hit Them Where It Hurts: When he needed to, Early in the 1991 NBA Finals, down 1-0, Phil Jackson targeted Magic Johnson.

Phil Jackson had a sense that his team had played beneath its level, that it had struggled with first-game jitters; he was confident that there were some defensive adjustments he could make tha twould impede the Lakers’ flow on fofense. He was not that unhappy…In Game Two, an early second foul on Jordan psuhed Jackson’s hand. He woudl have Pippen guard Magic on defense, something he had pondered doing early on. It was a marvelous move: Pippen was nearly as tall as Johnson but much quicker at this stage of their careers, and Johnson was unaccustomed to that combination. Pippen’s defense of Johnson seemed to throw the Lakers offense out of sync [and they would go on to lose the next four games].

~David Halberstam, Playing for Keeps

Notice how Phil has done something similar with Dwight Howard, crowding the lane with Pau Gasol playing much better defense than a year before, Bynum doing alright, and Odom coming over with great activity. Howard in this series has been fairly ineffective in the offensive end, and the Lakers have taken advantage of this. When he can, Phil finds the center of gravity of his opponent and makes sure he can’t get his production in easily. 

Avoid Groupthink: Phil spoke about his philosophy as a coachwhen comparing the way he treated his players compared to Riley’s.

Jackson was asked how his coaching style differs from that of Riley. “Pat is a person who works hard and uses his work ethic for great productivity,” Jackson said. “It’s a great form of discipline. But my feeling is that it’s restrictive. I encourage freedom. What I believe in is harnessing a certain amount of discipline so that the players can have freedom within parameters.”

Indeed, Riley’s authoritarian ways got him pushed out of LA and New York, as his controlling ways were too much for his players to handle. Jackson has almost never had that problem with his players, letting his players feel their way out and guiding them through rough spots.  His method of coaching relies on that sort of operational calculus where everyone flows and figures out how to work the offense that makes it maximally effective.

Segment Your Forces: See how some of Phil’s players talk about his operating practices, about how his eccentric style inspires his team to play better than they are.

Thus, he controls the dynamic: While people may think that this is Jackson ceding control of the game to the players, it actually increases his power as a coach; instead of the regimental hierarchy that exists between player and coach, Jackson harnesses this power to his advantage, builds trust between him and his players, and in turn there is not much tension when they play on the court.

Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant, the two most talented players Jackson has ever coached, were either begrudging or disinterested in the way Jackson coached the team, believing they could win. By the end of MJ’s career and approaching the end of Kobe’s, neither couldn’t imagine playing for anyone else, Jordan saying outright that he wouldn’t play for anyone else. If that isn’t controlling the dynamic as a basketball coach, what is?

Take the Line of Least Expectation. There is certainly nothing conventional about the triangle offense, a read and react system that requires players to adapt to the situation on the court. Bill Simmons made a great point in this New Yorker article abut how Jackson’s lineup defies convention.

Also, L.A. runs the triangle and doesn’t need a conventional point guard; you need interchangeable swingmen, one rebounder, passing big men, and one scorer who can create his own shot when things break down. Phil Jackson has a chance to win his tenth title—tenth!—without ever having an All-Star point guard on any of those teams. That’s amazing.

Indeed, basketball is supposed to be won with a great point guard running the team. Phil Jackson has won nine rings with John Paxson, BJ Armstrong, Ron Harper, Steve Kerr, Brian Shaw and Derek Fisher running point. Each has had their moments though, but it certainly has broken the belief that without a dominant one-guard your team was going nowhere (indeed, the Lakers have beaten three teams with more talented point guards in these playoffs).

Manuever Them Into Weakness: Again, the trangle offense is the closest thing to manuever warfare in basketball. It forces players to read and react based on how the defense is positioning to take care of them. Take a look at this breakdown of how the triangle is run.

Lose Battles But Win the War: The LA Lakers have been in strange situations this season. They lost the race for the best team and thus lost home court advantage throughout the playoffs to the Cleveland Cavaliers. Turned out it didn’t matter (and if the regular season meetings meant anything, Cleveland was not on the same level as the Lakers this season).

They played games up and down late into the regular season and deep into the playoffs. The media questioned whether Phil was losing his grip on the team. But Jackson seemed to be the only one to realize the NBA Playoffs weren’t single-elimination.

They lost two games to the Rockets without Yao Ming…everyone in LA panicked at the thought of Game 7. Except for Phil.

 

“No, I’m not worried,” Jackson says. “There’s nothing to be worried about. It’s just a game, and we’re just going to go out and play, and it’s our home court, and it’s what we’ve played for.”

At first blush, he’s brushing it off, maybe protesting too much, maybe not respecting the Rockets enough.

But that one isn’t for the room, and it isn’t even for the fans losing their religion on talk radio and local message boards. It’s for the players down the hall, sweating out their disappointment and putting on their anxiety. It’s for Gasol, itching to prove he can improve on last season’s finish. It’s for Lamar Odom, needing to dig deep to overcome a lower back injury. It’s for Bryant, maybe squeezing the egg so tightly he’s in danger of crushing it.

That one is a critique of the idea of worry itself. That one says, Worry is not the disposition that will get us through this. Confidence is what’s needed. Faith in the system and the personnel and the preparation is what is required.

 

Derek Fisher looked done in the Houston series and everyone was wondering; now he’s established in Finals lore.

Phil trusts his guys, and the trust filters down to his players, to Kobe finding Fisher for the spot up game-winning 3.

Give Your Rivals Enough Rope to Hang Themselves: George Karl, Jerry Sloan, Rick Adelman, Mike Dunleavy. These coaches have been to the NBA Finals, dueled with Jackson numerous times to the Playoffs, and lost every single time. You know the analogy where when some guys are playing checkers the winner was always playing chess? Same concept here.

Stan Van Gundy has felt the bite here too.

Game 4 showed the contrast between the philosophies of Phil Jackson and Steve Van Gundy. Fisher had been struggling for the past 2 months. For the game he was 0 -5 from 3, yet Phil Jackson understands that the true essence of a man is the most important of all. Trust in Fisher’s character allows Jackson to let go the fear and give Fisher the chance to succeed. On the other hand, SVG’s actions are driven by fear. Why did Nelson play the last 18 minutes instead of Alston? “Well he wasn’t really hurting us out there”. He wasn’t helping you win either. The fear that Alston might fail to deliver dictated SVG’s tactics and in the end had Nelson and all of his 5?10? height closing out on Fisher.

Why didn’t they foul right away? The fear that the Magic players would choke the free throws dictated tactics. They should have fouled right away and SVG should have trusted their abilities to make foul shots. But SVG didn’t. Phil Jackson is open to the potential of success but not afraid of failure, and therefore allows his players to just play. SVG is consumed by fear, infuses doubt in his players, and it cost him the game.

 

Transformed the War Into A Crusade: It was no secret that the Chicago Bulls players disliked Jerry Reinsdorf and Jerry Krause, the owner and GM for the Bulls at the time of the championship years, and Phil Jackson used that as a unifying force on several occasions, especially for underpaid players like Scottie Pippen and Horace Grant:

The alienation of team from management was not without its potential upside for Jackson, a man both supple and subtle. Eventually, he was able to use the very isolation of the players from the front office–the belief on the part of many of the players that the front office was essentially hostile to their goals and did not want the team to win a sixth championship–as a unifying force.

He would use similar such psychological ploys with the Lakers in 2000 (which created a focused Shaq that we haven’t seen before or since) and this season, when media people doubted that they could win the title because they didn’t have the drive or focus to complete the journey.

Know How To End Things:  Phil could have ended his career with that messy three-way divorce with Kobe & Shaq in 2004. But it would’ve left been the wrong way to finish things, would’ve tarnished his legacy that he had lost his powers to motivate his players. 

It’s possible that during his final years with Shaq’s Lakers, Phil might have veered off course; he was unable to rein in Shaq or Kobe, and it inevitably became the undoing of that Lakers squad, who bickered and fell apart as a squad at the very end. 

So he came back a year later, and slowly but surely guided Bryant from offensive wunderkind to all-around team player (certainly not the greatest team player ever, but just enough to involve everyone in a title run). Phil talks about the process of becoming successful in a book he wrote about the infamous 2004 season, The Last Season. 

“Tex [Winter], who is definitely no Buddhist, has a saying that I’ve grown to love: ‘You are only a success at the moment that you do a successful act.’ You can’t be a success the next moment because you have already moved onto something else, even if it’s accepting an award for the successful moment that just passed. That is why I’ve always told my players the glorification comes from the journey, not the outcome.”

Being able to get through to Bryant, a player who has struggled to accept coaching or help, to build that trust that hadn’t always been there before, might be Phil’s crowning achievement, and that’s saying a lot.

Indeed, by putting the emphasis on the big picture rather than the small, by focusing on the present rather than the past and the future, Phil Jackson has coached some of the best to the pantheon of greatness.

(Image by thefinaltruth)

For those not familiar with the story, Xenophon was a Greek philosopher/adventurer back in those ancient times. He accompanied Greek mercenaries under Cyrus into the heart of the Persian empire to march on Babylon to overthrow Cyrus’s brother, the Persian king Ataxerxes. The attack failed, Cyrus was killed, and the Greek commander was ambushed and beheaded by Persian soldiers on the trek back to Greek territory. As the Greek soldiers began to fall into despair, Xenophon began to cast himself into the spotlight.

“That night Xenophon, who had stayed mostly on the sidelines during the expedition, had ad ream: a lightning bolt from Zeus set fire to his father’s house. He woke up in a sweat. It suddenly struck him: death was staring the Greeks in the face, yet they lay around moaning, despairing, arguing. The problem was in their heads. Fightin for money rather than for a purpose or a cause, unable to distinguish between friend and foe, they had gotten lost. The barriers between them ”

Robert Greene, The 33 Strategies of War

Eventually Xenophon would help inspire the Greeks to forget about these internal battles and turn their fight outward onto the Persians. He told them to focus on one goal: Getting home to Greece. Inspired by this call to arms, the Greeks managed to elude the Persian army and get back to Greece in reduced, but still healthy numbers.

Now, what does that have to do with the Big Cactus? Let’s take a little look at his personal taste in movies:

“Remember, Shaq’s favorite movie is “The Warriors,” the ’70’s classic where the top gang leader in New York City (Cyrus) holds a gang summit and tries to organize the first-ever gang revolution. As Cyrus points out, the total number of gang members doubles the number of police officers in the city, which logically means that they can overpower them and take over everything. Apparently, he didn’t know about the National Guard, the FBI, the Army and the Marines. Anyway, Cyrus gets assassinated at the gang summit — one of the most devastating screen deaths ever, right up there with Sonny Corleone and Hooch — and everyone incorrectly blames the Warriors, an unassuming gang from Coney Island.”

Sound familiar? The Warriors is actually based off of Xenophon’s Anabasis. The struggle, the despair, the leader stepping up (Swan taking the place of Xenophon).

What is striking is that despite this being Shaq’s favorite movie, he doesn’t seem to have learned the deeper meaning behind the message of the film. If he did, he might very well be most dominant center ever. Simmons wrote a fascinating paragraph about Shaq’s reaction in the 2006 NBA Finals, that even with Shaq playing the Robin role he still couldn’t cede the spotlight. The victory had to be about him, in some form or the other.

Shaq has struggled with internal drama his entire career, to the detriment of his team and perhaps his legacy. That he could never show up and lead his team to big victories (and it’s still debatable whether he’s ever shown up). That the NBA had to change the rules so teams could defend him. That he never put in the work to make his damned free throws.  That everyone was out to get him. That his coaches were never good enough or masters of panic. That his teammates didn’t get him the ball enough. That his centers That his sidekicks (Penny, Kobe, Wade) were selfish and immature.  

Perhaps there’s some truth to that. Shaq is candid like that. But what does it tell us about Shaq that he says such things? Is he just trying to make excuses for his narcissism and self-indulgence?  He could’ve had at least seven to eight dominant seasons rather than three (imagine that 2000 season replicated six to seven times over), like Bill Russell and Kareem, and left the game as undoubtedly one of the greatest to ever play the game. Right now he’s sitting somewhere in the top 20, with two of his sidekicks (Kobe and Wade) on their way to surpassing him.

Shaq could’ve overcome all of this if he had the foresight of Xenophon or the will of Swan. Instead of being ruthless and destroying his opponents on the court after winning his first title, he retreated and did just enough to squeak his way to titles. If he had battled his inner insecurities and turned the inner drama into an external battle he waged to get to the top. 

But he could never truly crush his insecurities. His career won’t be a disappointment, but it’ll be diminished from what it could’ve been. Shaq can say he’s the greatest center ever all he wants. We all know the truth. He didn’t do quite enough to get out of Persia.

I’m going to take the glass half-full approach for the Magic. First of all, the Lakers get complacent. They are so talented, so efficient, so destructive on offense when they’re running their sets that they look totally unstoppable; when Bryant and Odom on their game, doubly so. And sometimes they sort of ride that train and lose their edge that it takes the other team beating them to get it back. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Orlando storm back to take Game 2, and certainly if the three ball gets stroking it frees up Howard to wreck more inside (Bynum, Pau and Odom flirted with foul trouble, didn’t really matter though).

Kobe was not padding his stats. He was running the offense, driving to the hoop, breaking down Orlando’s D (Howard was a step slow all night, compounding the Magic’s issues), producing open jumpers for open teammates and pretty good looks for him. He wasn’t pulling up for 3 balls or badly contested jumpers; those are good shots for Bryant. It was a great performance and it should be taken as such.

If Gasol isn’t playing well in the low block, Howard can come over and bother Bryant on his drives, something Lebron couldn’t do with Big Z (and only minimally so with Varejao), who is not a good post player. Take a look at how much trouble the Rockets gave LA when Chuck Hayes banged with Pau, or how close Denver played them when Bryant and Fisher were hoisting up jumpers and Pau saw the ball too few times.

Kobe can get his, but when the offense runs through or with Gasol, it takes their team to another level on the offensive end.

I really don’t know how I feel about Black Mamba’s performance (otherworldly as usual). Maybe it’s that awful Laker crowd he plays in front of. Anyone get the sense you were watching a grand Shakespeare play, except it was being performed at your local VFW? Those guys get excited about NOTHING. Nevertheless, art is art.

Let’s keep in mind he can play that great because Gasol is down low and Howard can’t play off the pick and roll as much as he’d like. One of the big problems LeBron had was that there was no one he could go to inside.

However, UNLIKE Chosen One, Kobe didn’t hesitate. No dribbles, just drive, drive, drive. In previous series it looked like he held back a lot more because he wanted to make sure he had something for the end. And it just angers me more why Coach Brown didn’t unleash Lebron on a fast break once in that series. I hate NBA coaches.

Let me give credit to the Laker D, which was much better than Cleveland’s D in adjusting to Howard and forcing the Magic into rushed passes into 3s in uncomfortable spots. Orlando did miss a lot of open shots, but LA did have something to do with the blowout.

Flash-forward 14 years and they face a similar situation. But not quite. Howard might not be quite as polished on the offensive end as Shaq was, but his defensive game is certainly up to par, he kept LeBron James out of the paint for most of the series and forced him to take tough jumpers, and in Game 6 he wrecked his way to the Finals (40 points, 14 rebounds, a performance that will go unheralded unless Orlando wins it all). He probably won’t have his way with Gasol (who battled him to a standstill in the Olympic play) or Bynum (much more athletic on the block, although absent-minded defensively), but he still should be the better center.

For those who haven’t watched the Magic this season, their offense is predicated on more than just 3s. It’s ball movement, penetration, kick, rotate it to the open man. It’s disturbingly Spurs like in its efficiency, although unlike Duncan, Howard isn’t always the focus of the Magic offense; their forwards, Lewis & Turkogulu have their own offensive talents (Hedo, their SF, often has as many assists as the Magic’s point guards; Rashard can post up and shoot 3s). Add in former Warrior swingman Mickael Pietrus, rookie Courtney Lee, Skip To My Lou Rafer Alston, the recently reactivated Jameer Nelson (who killed LA in the regular season), and you have a very scary offensive team if the 3 ball gets going. Every one of Orlando’s guards/forwards can slash, drive and kick. They’re a surprisingly efficient team, quite different from the ‘95 Magic too (that was a team purely built on youthful exuberance).

LA Lakers: This is arguably Kobe Bryant’s last chance to win a title as The Man. He’s wrapping up his thirteenth season in the league. He’s played over 1120 games in the league, more than MJ during his entire career as a Bull. The slippage starts now, and soon the team totally belongs to Gasol or Bynum (this is a big if, the likelier bet is Gasol) the way it belonged to Shaq. Bryant would again become the second option, and he would be doomed to deal with the fact (even if he won more rings) that he could never win a title as

The key to this series is how quickly the Lakers get into their offensive sets and establish themselves with Gasol getting that ball on the block in the Triangle offense, how much Kobe can play off of it, how well Odom and Ariza can finish, and how Fisher, Farmar, Vujacic and Brown can nail down open jumpers. The offense has to run through Pau; if he sees that ball late in the shot clock, if the ball stays hung out on the perimeter, than the Lakers can expect to get torpedoed. Lee & Pietrus are not even close to being Battier and Artest, but they can keep Kobe in front of him and force him to take jumpers (as can Howard if Kobe drives). However, if Pau has it, things become much easier offensively.

Now, if Lamar Odom plays like Odom at his best for four games, the Lakers are getting their rings. But none of us are expecting that–LA should be happy if they get two and hope Kobe and Pau can win them two more. The Lakers do have the size to compete with the Magic’s forwards in Ariza and Odom, but they also can fall asleep on closing out at the three point line (their two losses to the Rockets post-Yao a good example).

If I had to pick, it’s probably the Lakers, because Orlando, despite their monumental success, would not have gotten here if KG got injured. They got here a year early and they might play like it; the urgency isn’t quite there like it is for Los Angeles and Bryant. Dwight Howard is 23 and will be back. Who knows how many more times we’ll be able to say that about Kobe.

Additional notes:

Phil never double teams. He threw Rodman on Shaq, O’Neal got his 40, but the Bulls swept the Magic. He put Horry on C-Webb, who struggled to finish games and the Lakers eeked out the Kings. I expect we’ll see Bynum, then Pau, then (maybe) some Mbenga, but it’s up to those two to stop the onslaught of Howard inside.

Now, Jameer’s return makes the Magic very interesting. He might not play well early on, but if he can slash and drive on Brown and Farmar he will make LA’s lives very miserable, because they will always be reacting to what Orlando is trying to do on offense.

Keep in mind that the Magic love to screen and roll…and Phil Jackson-coached teams always struggle with screen and roll (this one especially because of how much they like to overhelp).

Let me guys know if there’s anything I’ve missed.

Other places to check out: Forum Blue & Gold and Silver Screen and Roll for Lakers fans, Third Quarter Collapse for Magic fans.